So how will we know?

[susandennis]

I'm assuming this whole virus thing will be in our rear view mirror at some point, but, how will we know when that point is? Will the governor just hold a press conference one day and say 'ok we're cool, all the restaurants can reopen, you can go back to work and everybody can now, once again, touch your face'.

I'm guessing testing will become more available so we will discover that many more people than we thought have it but, then after a while, the number will start dropping? And when it hits a certain threshold, all virus bets are turned off?

I get that it may be months. But I don't get how we will know. What will be the Virus is Gone Green Light?

I used to work for a guy who always said the most important question to ask when given a project, task or assignment is "what does success look like for this (project, task or assignment)?" In this case, I assume, success looks like the way life was the first week in January of 2020. But, I somehow kind of doubt we'll ever see that again.

We will need to redefine a bunch o' stuff at some point but what is that point and how will we know it when we get there?

Comments

[coercedbynutmeg.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I don't know. I'm also wondering about people who probably had it before testing was available and so they'll never test positive because they are already recovered. Like how they could never identify a Patient Zero in Italy.

I think the idea is that eventually enough people get it so that there's some degree of herd immunity, but it would seem like that number would need to be 50% or greater. And again, there's not a good way to track that unless everyone is being regularly tested. For a lot of people, unless they're ER-level sick, they're not going to be getting tested with every cough, headache, or fever.

[vysila.livejournal.com]

That is a very good question. Someone smarter and more medically versed has to answer that one.

BTW, may I say that I still check in daily for kitty hijinks and retirement awesomeness, even though I haven't been commenting. But kitty hijinks are always a hit in this household. My elderly cats approve.

[susandennis]

Daily commenting is not at all an requirement! Come silently visit any time. The kitties and I would love it if you would.

[fauxklore]

1. Developmental/ deployment of vaccine. Testing for safety and effectiveness takes on the order of 13-18 months.

2. Identifying treatments. Some existing drugs, like chloroquine, look promising.

3. You can test for herd immunity if you have an antibody test. That’s what they do to see if you are immune to measles and rubella and such. I’ve heard 60% as what you need, but I’d have thought it would be higher, based on what I remember from a measles outbreak. But that may be because measles is extraordinarily contagious.

[curiouswombat.livejournal.com]

On BBC radio 4's 'Food Programme' on Sunday someone said that they had been aware of a problem in China in November, when orders for British pork were being cancelled whilst it was actually in transit because, they were told, there were problems unloading and distributing it. Then the supply of vitamins from China (I never thought about where they came from!) used in fortifying some foods suddenly dried up.

But, the same person said, it is clear that China is getting back to normal as the food chain is beginning to move there again.

I'm not 100% sure what success will look like, but I would guess it will be when there are no new cases in a particular country or state, and the food chain begins to move normally again...